8/5/08

Playbook 101

Two new polls both out this week show McCain not only gaining ground on Obama but with a national lead. If I’m not mistaken this is the first time any genuine poll has showed McCain with a national lead. I don’t think he even had a national lead during the GOP primary, but that’s beside the point.As you can see from the graph above there's a nice upward tick for McCain to an Obama leveling. The keywords being “upward tick” and “leveling.” We’re seeing McCain gaining ground but Obama isn’t trending downward as quickly as McCain's rise. How is it possible that McCain can be gaining ground with Obama staying the same? Very simple. McCain is closing the gap with independents and undecideds.

McCain has been running negative ads for about three weeks with the latest polling showing the first signs of it paying off. Thus, it’s important to note that McCain’s uptick is with negative campaigning and not with positives about himself. He hasn’t run on policy but on negative ads trying to blame Obama for gas prices, or ads comparing Obama to Brittney Spears and Paris Hilton-- two of the most tiresome celebrities on American television currently. Only within the last week has Obama hit back trying to debunk the smears. But the explanation is clearly McCain has positive results from some of the most bizarre ads in American presidential politics.

As much as I would like to see a campaign about policy it’s clear we’ll never get one. Republicans couldn’t possibly run their campaign on issues and they absolutely understand this to perfection. What they have to have in order to win is orchestrate a smear contest and a campaign full of distortions.

Jaz Marsden says it beautifully on his blog in a comment to one of his readers.

John McCain is a known quantity. Whatever you feel about his policies, which are not nearly as nebulous as Obama's, Americans know that he is at least the safe choice. Obama is the one who is undefined. And so far any evidence that anyone can use to figure out what makes him tick is very disturbing.

His 20 year relationship with Reverend Wright, and Reverend Phleger, William Ayers the weatherman underground terrorist, Tony Rezko and his shady land deals with Obama, Obama's politically expedient flip-flops on every major issue, his weakness on foreign policy, his tax raising philosophy, his socialist domestic agenda...
Set aside for a second that Rezko raised millions for Bush and many, many other Republicans. As Jaz says, McCain is a known quantity. What we know is that McCain’s record is a continuation of the Bush presidency, a president he voted with 95% of the time. It’s a record of being in the pockets of Big Oil; a record that has flip-flopped on every issue imaginable including Big Oil’s love affair with offshore drilling; a record that has no plan for Iraq except war without end and a record that obviously can’t make up its mind on whether or not to raise taxes.

Like Jaz highlights, the GOP’s best hope is to make Obama the one who flip flops even though McCain has 72 flops to Obama’s three. Again, in the Republican Fantasy World 3 > 72. They will continue to claim Obama is weak on foreign policy when McCain constantly refers to a country that doesn’t even exist and his policy for Iran is to bomb them and sing songs about bombing them. They will continue to blame Obama for high gas prices even though McCain is the largest recipient of Big Oil donations and even though McCain has all along opposed drilling in ANWR and offshore, the two solutions the GOP claim will solve all of our energy problems. They will continue to bewail that Obama will raise taxes even though McCain has continuously flip-flopped on his not raising taxes promise and as recently as this week said all options are on the table including tax hikes. And best of all, just like Jaz does hook, line and sinker, the GOP will almost assuredly continue to call Obama a socialist even though their savior George Bush has given us the largest tax and spend government in history. The greatest president to ever serve, and by far the most popular, has increased the size of government more than any president since FDR. The Great Best Hope for our country in these perilous times has expanded the overall size and scope of the federal government, socialized Wall Street and the wealthy, and increased our dependency on a federal bureaucracy more than anyone. Socialism is the Republican Party. This is their record, their known quantity and McCain is their heir apparent. Their only hope is to run against Hope.

As Jaz concludes, it is their (Republican) “responsibility to try to wake Obama followers out of their trance.” Yet there’s no saving them from their Fantasy World. A world full of the ailments that delivered us George Bush and one that wants 4 more years of the same miserable failures.

We can only expect more of the same from the GOP and their campaign operation. Obama's response to it will be the deciding factor in the race.